Oil Monitor as of 14 March 2017


WORLD OIL PRICES (March 06-10, 2017 trading days)

Oil prices sustained downward trend over the week except last Tuesday when Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih affirmed that last year's agreement by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to curb supplies and boost prices has improved the oil market supply and demand fundamentals.  The Oil Minister added that OPEC would not let rival producers take advantage of the cuts to underwrite their own production investments.

However, analysts averred of OPEC’s unrealistic expectation of their production cuts.  With the steep slide in oil prices over the week, investors expressed scepticism that the production cut has been enough to reduce a global oil glut.  While prices had risen in more than two months, analysts recently expressed that record-high US crude stockpiles and increasing oil rig activity are seen to be jeopardizing the OPEC efforts to drain a global surplus.

More specific factors that have driven oil prices lower were as follows:

  •  Expectation of  U.S.  interest rate  hike  is  lifting the  US  dollar, which  makes oil expensive to other currency holders, consequently denting demand and driving prices lower.
  •  US oil rig count rose by eight to 617, according to Baker Hughes, as operators continued to ramp up activity just as crude prices dipped below $50/bbl for the first time since December.
  •  Barrels of oil from North Sea, West African and both North and South American are pouring into Asia, mitigating the intended tightening effects of fewer Middle East sour barrels on the market.

In Asia, Platts noted of sustained weak market fundamentals, with high stocks seen within the region. Singapore's light distillates stocks, including gasoline, reformate and naphtha, rose to a one-month high of 13.9 million barrels in the week ended March 8, according to International Enterprise Singapore data.   As for gasoil, fundamentals were stable, with the Exchange of Futures for Swaps remaining positive.  The market has plenty of 10 ppm sulphur gasoil while regional demand for 500 ppm sulfur grade would continue to lend support to prices.

Overall, Dubai crude decreased week-on-week by nearly US$1.60/bbl. Similarly, MOPS gasoline and diesel decreased by about US$1.30 and US$1.90 per barrel, respectively.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated further against the US dollar by P0.06 to P50.34/US$, from

P50.28 last week.

Other recommended reference sites:

·    http://www.aip.com.au/pricing;

·    http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai

·    https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 14 March 2017, most of the oil companies decreased their prices of gasoline by P0.35/liter, diesel by P0.60/liter and kerosene by P0.70/liter.Year-to-date adjustments were reduced to net increase of P0.49/liter in gasoline and P0.75/ liter in diesel.  LPG remain at a net increase of P9.10/kg.

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in  Metro Manila beginning March 14, 2017.

 

Products

Price Range

Common Price

P/liter

Diesel

28.05-33.95

30.95

Gasoline*

39.40-48.09

46.68

LPG, P/11-kg

cylinders

496.00-756.00

 

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

 

Oil Monitor as of 07 March 2017


WORLD OIL PRICES (February 27 – March 03, 2017 trading days)

Oil prices remained trading in a narrow US$5 range around the mid-$50s in the past two months, as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between rising stockpiles and increased shale production in the United States. The market also hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers.

Last week, a broadly weaker U.S. dollar somehow helped futures price to rebound from trader’s sell-off that took them several-week lows in the prior session.  A weaker dollar typically strengthens oil prices as the dollar-priced commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

However, prices still ended with a weekly loss as concern over rising shale production and record-high U.S. crude inventories offset optimism that OPEC and its allies have been following through on their commitment to cut production.  Concerns on the on-going rebound in U.S. shale production, which could ruin efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand, pressured crude prices.

Recent data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes revealed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 7 to 609 last week, the seventh weekly increase in a row.  It further noted that US oil rig counts continued expanding the domestic working crude-directed fleet as the Eagle Ford Shale further heated up.

Accordingly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration disclosed an increased crude supplies by 1.5 million barrels last week to yet another all-time high of 520.2 million. Reportedly, it was the eighth straight weekly build in U.S. stockpiles, feeding concerns about a global glut.

In Asia, excess supply continued to weigh down the Asian gasoline market, while stable regional demand is unlikely to fully absorb volumes from North Asia and India. Demand shored up from Vietnam and Indonesia.  As for gasoil/diesel, market fundamentals did not change, with supply of 500 ppm sulfur gasoil still tight while 10 ppm supply remained ample. The tightness in 500 ppm supply was due to strong regional demand, partly coming from Sri Lanka and Malaysia, Platts noted.

Overall, Dubai crude increased week-on-week by US$0.10/bbl.  MOPS gasoline and diesel dropped by nearly US$2/bbl and US$0.55/bbl, respectively.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated against the US dollar by P0.05 to P50.28/US$, from P50.23 last week.

Other recommended reference sites:


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES   

Effective 07 March 2017, most of the oil companies effected a decrease of P0.55/liter in gasoline, P0.10/liter in diesel and P0.30/liter in kerosene. LPG was also slashed by P0.35-P0.36 per kg due to the decrease in LPG Contract Price this month by US$9/MT to US$564/MT, from US$573/MT in February. Year-to-date adjustments reduced to net increase of P0.84/liter in gasoline and P1.35/ liter in diesel.  LPG stands now at net increase of P9.10/kg.


As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning March 07,  2017.
Products Price  Common 
Range Price
P/liter
Diesel 28.65-34.55 31.55
Gasoline* 39.60-48.70 46.88
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 496.00-756.00  
*RON 95    

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Oil Monitor as of 28 February 2017


WORLD OIL PRICES (February 20-24, 2017 trading days)

Over the trading week, there were moderate yet consistent increases in Asia’s crude benchmark-Dubai on reports that OPEC and other producers including Russia were showing "record" adherence to the terms of the output deal agreed last year. Compliance as of recent data is estimated at 90 per cent.

Reports disclosed that since the agreement was formalised in December, the oil price has risen about US$10/bbl. While the rally has run out of steam, despite the high level of  compliance,  oil  prices  consistently  stayed  above  US$50  a  barrel.    US  shale production that was driven offline over the past two years were coming back in operation, moderating the price gains being made by OPEC and other producers.

Another reason that caused oil price uptick in midweek was the US-EIA data, which showed the rise in US stockpiles as smaller than expected.  US crude oil inventories rose 600,000 barrels to 518.7 million, 8.9% higher year-on-year and the seventh consecutive rise.

In Asia, Platts reported of a relatively balanced gasoline market.  Ample supplies in North Asia were countered by expectations of availability tightness over March to April arising from the maintenance.  The gasoline glut in the US, which saw inventories hit an all-time high two weeks ago, reportedly weighed on Asian market sentiment.  As for gasoil/diesel, demand and supply fundamentals slightly changed, with tight supply of 500 ppm and 2,500 ppm. Turnaround in Pertamina’s Balongan and Balikpapan refineries in Indonesia, and firm regional demand are contributing to tight market in the region.

Overall, Dubai crude increased week-on-week by almost US$0.50/bbl.  MOPS gasoline dropped by about US$1.60/bbl, contrary to that of diesel that increased by around US$0.50/bbl.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated against the US dollar by P0.30 to P50.23/US$, from P49.93 last week.

Other recommended reference sites:


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 28 February 2017, most of the oil companies  implemented a  P0.40/liter decrease in gasoline; diesel and kerosene increased by P0.35 and P0.30 a liter, respectively.

Year-to-date   adjustments   stand   at   net increase of P1.39/liter in gasoline and P1.45/ liter in diesel.

As monitored,  shown below are the retail prices in

Metro Manila beginning February 28,  2017.

 

Products

Price

Range

Common

Price

P/liter

Diesel

28.75-34.65

31.65

Gasoline*

40.15-49.25

47.43

LPG, P/11-kg

cylinders

 

500.00-760.00

 

 

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Oil Monitor as of February 14, 2017


WORLD OIL PRICES (February 6-10, 2017 trading days)

Over the week, crude oil prices moved slightly lower as growing crude stockpiles in the United States due to growing revival in U.S. shale production complicate efforts by OPEC and other producers to reduce a supply glut.

U.S. crude inventories were up 13.8 million barrels in the week to Feb. 3, higher than expectations for an increase of 2.5 million barrels. Conversely, Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it made an even bigger cut than estimated by the secondary sources, reducing January output by more than 700,000 bpd to 9.748 million bpd - lower than called for under the OPEC deal.

However, oil market analysts believe that compliance rate of OPEC seems to have been priced in. The U.S. rig count is weighing as recent data of Baker Hughes disclosed that it was up 8 to 591. Investors are very concerned about increasing US drilling activity, as it would give rise to US oil production and offset some of output cut efforts from the OPEC.

Stronger dollar also was adding pressure to oil prices, making the dollar-denominated commodity expensive for other currency holders.

In Asia, the strong NYMEX March RBOB futures continued to lend support to Asian gasoline values.  Spot demand for gasoline was emerging from Vietnam and Pakistan.  As for gasoil, spot demand level from regional buyers remained relatively unchanged, especially from the national oil companies of Indonesia and Vietnam. This complements the latest release of data showing a rise in commercial stockpiles of middle distillates in trading hub Singapore.

Overall, Dubai crude decreased week-on-week by US$0.20/bbl.  MOPS gasoline decreased as well by US$0.10, contrary to that of diesel that increased by US$0.50/bbl

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated by P0.02 against the US dollar to P49.81/US$, from P49.79 last week.

Other recommended reference sites:


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES   

Effective 14 February 2017, most oil companies implemented an increase of P0.20/liter for diesel and P0.10/liter for kerosene.  There is no mevement in gasoline.

Year-to-date adjustment in diesel is now at net increase of P1.10/liter.  Gasoline remains with  net increase of P1.54/liter.  

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 14 February 2017.

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 28.40-34.30 30.80
Gasoline* 40.30-49.40 47.58
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 500.00-790.00  
* RON 95

 

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of January 31, 2017


 

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 23-27, 2017 trading days)

Crude oil prices were generally stable over the whole trading week, as the market expects OPEC output cuts that provided a floor for prices, while extreme speculative length and looming U.S. production growth provide a ceiling.

The increase in US crude and products inventory also emphasizes the challenges facing OPEC in reducing supply, but indications that major producers are complying with cuts is helping support pr ices.

Specifically, U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a s ubstantial build in gasoline stockpiles of 6.8 million barrels , along with c rude oil inventories that build by 2.8 million barrels , the third consecutive weekly increase.

In Asia, Platts noted of ample supply of gasoline in the region. On demand side, the month of February is seen to have lower imports than January after stocking up is over in celebration for the Lunar New Year. In contrast, the Asian gasoil mar ket continued to gain ground as of Friday, supported by healthy requirements for fresh barrels from Indonesia against a backdrop of tightening supply, especially for medium and higher sulphur grades.

Overall, week - on - week average Dubai increased by about US$0.50/bbl . MOPS gasoline slightly moved while diesel in creased by US$0. 8 0 per barrel.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated by P0.06 against the US dollar to P49.82/US$, from P49.88 last week.

Other recommended reference site:


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 31 January 201 7 , the oil companies implemented a price increase of P0.25/liter for diesel . There is no adjustment for gasoline and kerosene.

Year - to - date , diesel ha s net increase of P0.60 /liter , while gasoline remains with net increase P1.04 /liter.

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 17 January 2017.

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 27.90-33.80 30.80
Gasoline* 39.80-48.90 47.08
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 471.00-690.00  
* RON 95

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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