WORLD OIL PRICES (December 25-29, 2023, trading days)
The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.75/bbl. On the other hand, MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have decreased by about $0.40, $1.40, and $3.20 per barrel, respectively.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment
- Oil retreated as rising inventories at the key U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, partly offset a drop in national stockpiles. The US-EIA data showed that national crude stockpiles fell 7.1 million barrels, the biggest one-week decline since August. But inventories at Cushing held steady at the highest level since the same month.
- Futures volumes have remained low during the holiday week, with trading activity below the 50-day average in the last eight sessions. Reports have said that time spreads continue to flash short-term supply weakness. Similarly, crude futures settled slightly lower on Dec. 29 to a five-month low on the last trading day of the year, with easing tensions over shipping through the Red Sea and despite bullish demand signals from Asia.
- In 2023, geopolitical conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas and most recently the Red Sea incidents have provided temporary spikes in oil prices. However, these did not fuel a long-term bullish trend in the oil markets. Tensions involving oil producing countries always spur a bullish market. But the year ended with oil prices back into their trading range of $75 to $80 since there were no supply disruptions. The weakness of demand in Europe and China is currently offset by OPEC+ production cuts.
- Looking forward, OPEC and IEA have forecast that demand growth will increase in 2014. While on supply, analysts have said that OPEC+ production policy is the key uncertainly. If OPEC+ policy remains intact, oil prices would not be able to gain strong downside momentum unless developed economies fall into a recession. At this point, Saudi Arabia and Russia are longing to cut production to support oil prices. Thus, they are of the opinion that oil is ready to rebound from recent lows as demand keeps growing while OPEC+ restricts production.
FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.18 to P55.55 from P55.72 in previous week.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 02 January 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease in the price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene by P 0.10/L, P 0.35/L and P1.40/L, respectively.
As of 2024, the net adjustment of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene stands at net decrease of P0.10/liter, P0.35/liter, and P1.40/liter, respectively.
For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
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