WORLD OIL PRICES (August 08-12, 2016 trading days)
A stronger-than-expected US hiring figures and a general reevaluation of the likelihood of a US interest rate hike prompted crude prices to recover and linger above US$40 starting late last week. This shortrecovering rally gave investors an opportunity for profit taking. Further supporting the uptrend is the rumor of possible collaboration between Russia and OPEC.
Oil prices climbed further this week as investors were digesting the latest remarks from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, stating that members of the OPEC as well as non-members would discuss the market situation, including any action that may be required to stabilize prices, during an informal meeting on September 26-28 in Algeria. However, OPEC president and Qatar energy minister Mohammaded bin Saleh Al-Sada expressed uncertainty on the likelihood of an emerging deal insisting that the oil market's fundamentals appear sound.
Nevertheless, the unexpected build in U.S. crude oil inventories caused prices to fall by more than a dollar in midweek as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (US-EIA) data showed crude inventories rose 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the week ended August 5. Analysts expected a withdrawal between 0.8 mb/d and 1.34 mb/d instead. This reportedly added to the downbeat economic data that were all published last week, casting doubt that strong growth will return soon in the world's three biggest economies (the United States, China and Japan), as viewed by some energy analysts.
Recent market observations disclosed though, that analysts have mixed views about where the oil market is headed. They say that “international bodies like OPEC and industry specialists from EIA and IEA are forecasting a balanced oil market by 2017…but currently there are a lot of factors that remain in play, such as the state of the global economy and what OPEC may decide at their unscheduled meeting in September. Oil seems to be facing some head winds, and the road to a balanced market is unlikely to be a smooth one”.
In Asia, Platts indicated a largely unchanged gasoline market, with oversupply continuing to weigh on sentiment. Likewise, the Asian gasoil/diesel market reportedly remained weak, on lackluster demand and swelling supply that mostly comes from China. While commercial stocks of middle distillate fuels (gasoil, kerosene and jet fuel) in the main hub of Singapore reportedly fell last week, inventory levels were still high according to IE Singapore data. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia were listed as the top export destinations.
Overall, Dubai crude increased week-on-week by about US$1.90/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel decreased as well by almost US$2 and US$2.40 per barrel.
FOREX: Philippine peso recovered this week, appreciating against the US dollar by P0.20 to P46.80/US$ from P47.00 in previous week.
Other recommended reference site: http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 16 August 2016, most oil companies increased gasoline by P0.55/liter, diesel by P0.70/liter and kerosene by P0.65/liter.
Year-to-date adjustments are now at net increase of P0.64 in gasoline and P3.33 in diesel. LPG remains at net decrease of P8.48/kg.
As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning August 16, 2016.
|Products||Price Range||Common Price|
|LPG, P/11-kg cylinders||492.00-620.00|
* RON 95
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