Oil Monitor as of April 12, 2016


WORLD OIL PRICES (April 4-8, 2016 trading days)

Crude price benchmarks started the week with US$1 to more than US$2 per barrel drop on renewed concerns over continuing supply, but mixed reports of renewed demand behind indications of moderate economic growth in China and reassurance to hold OPEC and non-OPEC production levels at January 2016 levels sent prices back higher starting midweek.

By Monday, the statement of Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the country will not freeze oil output unless other major producers join the agreement initially set prices lower by more than dollar. It was partly in reaction to Iran’s stance and plan to ramp up its production to pre-sanctions levels and retake market share claimed by other major oil producers. Iran’s oil exports fell to a little more than 1 million barrels a day in 2014 from 2.6 million bpd in 2011, the year before the US and European Union intensified sanctions.

However, crudes rose anew on Wednesday and in succeeding trading days behind reports of a big decline in U.S. crude stockpiles, moderate economic growth in China and reassurance by Kuwaiti OPEC governor Nawal al-Fezaia that the upcoming April 17 meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC producers will deliver an agreement to hold output at January levels.

As the meeting among the major oil producers approaches, Brent and WTI spiked again by more than US$2 and US$3 respectively last Friday. However, analysts of Goldman Sachs noted that a freeze "at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market". It said, the meeting would be more likely to lead to a price drop than a hike, and indeed, output levels are close to all-time records for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (above 33 million barrels a day) and near the historic high for Russia, a participant in the Doha meeting (above 11.2 million barrels a day).

For the Asian market, Platts noted of a largely stable gasoline market amid little changes in regional fundamentals last Friday. While some market participants expected a rise in demand for 92 RON grade, as Indonesia starts stocking up for the month of Ramadan, they expect more demand for the most widely used 88 RON grade. As such, strong demand growth for gasoline may not be seen the same as last year.

As for gasoil, fewer cargoes were reportedly expected from the Middle East and supply in Northeast Asia remains tight during the turnaround season. This resulted to reinforced buying interest in the Asian gasoil market with the cash differential for the 10 ppm grade hitting fourmonth highs. The benchmark FOB Singapore 500 ppm sulfur gasoil cash differential also recovered slightly, but stocks were still widely available.

Overall, average for the week remained lower than in previous week as Dubai crude decreased by about US$0.43/bbl. Similarly, MOPS gasoline and diesel declined as well by nearly US$2.50/bbl and US$1.50/bbl, respectively.

FOREX: The peso per dollar rate appreciated by P0.03 to P46.16, from P46.19 in previous week.

Other recommended reference site: http://www.aip.com.au/pricing

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 12 April 2016, most of the oil companies implemented a rollback by P0.70/liter for gasoline, P0.50/liter for diesel and P0.55/liter for kerosene.

These brings the year-to-date adjustments to net decrease of P0.08/liter for gasoline and net increase of P0.28/liter for diesel.

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 12 April 2016.

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 20.05-25.77 22.65
Gasoline* 33.40-41.10 38.30
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 409.00-620.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

 
 

Oil Monitor as of April 5, 2016


WORLD OIL PRICES (March 28-April 1, 2016 trading days)

Oil prices inched-up Monday adding to gains in recent week as optimism holds that a production freeze among major producers may be implemented. OPEC members and nonmembers are set to meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss the plan. OPEC president and Qatar's energy minister Mohammed al-Sada has said the output freeze is supported by 15 countries, which account for 73 percent of worldwide production. However, OPEC-member Libya will not attend, and also Iran as it seeks to increase output and regain lost market share after years of international sanctions.

Oil prices however fluctuated as the market refocused on the world's relentless oversupply of crude. Traders, who were once optimistic about a production freeze were doubting its positive effects, stating that even if a production freeze is agreed, this would have limited impact on supply as OPEC output has already been stable at high levels of 32.4-32.6 million barrels a day since last June. Adding to the doubts about the freeze agreement was the decision of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, earlier this week, to restart production at a joint facility that can produce up to 300,000 barrels a day of crude.

Highlighting the continuing global oversupply of crude is the data from the U.S. Department of Energy that showed an increase in oil inventories by 2.5 million barrels last week.

For the Asian market, Platts noted of a largely stable gasoline market, as supplies remained ample on a relatively light turnaround schedule. More vessels were reportedly seen heading to and out of China's Quanzhou port. Also, Asia's biggest gasoline importer Indonesia will lower the retail price of the most widely used 88 RON gasoline starting April 1, raising expectations of higher demand.

Meanwhile, supply of 500 ppm sulfur gasoil/diesel in northeastern Asia was reportedly seen falling as refineries shut for maintenance. Sources said suppliers may not offer spot cargoes at least till the end of April, resulting to thin trading activity for the first half of April. Demand was said to have been steady with some buying interest seen in Southeast Asia, mainly from Vietnam.

Overall, Dubai decreased week-on-week by more than a dollar. MOPS gasoline and diesel had respective declines as well by about US$0.50 and US$2.00 a barrel.

FOREX: The peso per dollar rate appreciated by P0.17 to P46.19, from P46.36 in previous week.

Other recommended reference site: http://www.aip.com.au/pricing

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 April 2016, most of the oil companies effected a decrease of P0.15/liter for gasoline, P0.60/liter for diesel and P0.40/liter for kerosene.

LPG increased of P1.25/kg (VAT exclusive) effective, 01 April 2016 due to the US$30/MT increase in LPG Contract Price (CP) for April to US$341/MT, from US$311/MT last month.

Year-to-date total adjustment for gasoline and diesel are now at net increase of P0.62/liter and P0.78/liter, respectively. LPG has a net decrease of P6.70/kg.

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 5 April 2016

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 20.22-24.17 22.20
Gasoline* 33.90-42.39 38.85
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 409.00-634.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

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