Oil Monitor as of August 16, 2016


WORLD OIL PRICES (August 08-12, 2016 trading days)

A stronger-than-expected US hiring figures and a general reevaluation of the likelihood of a US interest rate hike prompted crude prices to recover and linger above US$40 starting late last week. This shortrecovering rally gave investors an opportunity for profit taking. Further supporting the uptrend is the rumor of possible collaboration between Russia and OPEC.

Oil prices climbed further this week as investors were digesting the latest remarks from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, stating that members of the OPEC as well as non-members would discuss the market situation, including any action that may be required to stabilize prices, during an informal meeting on September 26-28 in Algeria. However, OPEC president and Qatar energy minister Mohammaded bin Saleh Al-Sada expressed uncertainty on the likelihood of an emerging deal insisting that the oil market's fundamentals appear sound.

Nevertheless, the unexpected build in U.S. crude oil inventories caused prices to fall by more than a dollar in midweek as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (US-EIA) data showed crude inventories rose 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the week ended August 5. Analysts expected a withdrawal between 0.8 mb/d and 1.34 mb/d instead. This reportedly added to the downbeat economic data that were all published last week, casting doubt that strong growth will return soon in the world's three biggest economies (the United States, China and Japan), as viewed by some energy analysts.

Recent market observations disclosed though, that analysts have mixed views about where the oil market is headed. They say that “international bodies like OPEC and industry specialists from EIA and IEA are forecasting a balanced oil market by 2017…but currently there are a lot of factors that remain in play, such as the state of the global economy and what OPEC may decide at their unscheduled meeting in September. Oil seems to be facing some head winds, and the road to a balanced market is unlikely to be a smooth one”.

In Asia, Platts indicated a largely unchanged gasoline market, with oversupply continuing to weigh on sentiment. Likewise, the Asian gasoil/diesel market reportedly remained weak, on lackluster demand and swelling supply that mostly comes from China. While commercial stocks of middle distillate fuels (gasoil, kerosene and jet fuel) in the main hub of Singapore reportedly fell last week, inventory levels were still high according to IE Singapore data. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia were listed as the top export destinations.

Overall, Dubai crude increased week-on-week by about US$1.90/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel decreased as well by almost US$2 and US$2.40 per barrel.

FOREX: Philippine peso recovered this week, appreciating against the US dollar by P0.20 to P46.80/US$ from P47.00 in previous week.

Other recommended reference site: http://www.aip.com.au/pricing


 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 16 August 2016, most oil companies increased gasoline by P0.55/liter, diesel by P0.70/liter and kerosene by P0.65/liter.

Year-to-date adjustments are now at net increase of P0.64 in gasoline and P3.33 in diesel. LPG remains at net decrease of P8.48/kg.

 

 

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning August 16, 2016.

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 23.96-27.10 25.85
Gasoline* 33.85-40.90 39.05
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 492.00-620.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of August 09, 2016


 

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 01-05, 2016 trading days)

Oil prices seesawed over the week as the market reacted to different factors concerning economic indicators, oil supply, demand and inventories.

The week started with a modest increase, as Dubai crude rose by more than US$1 on Monday behind reports of upbeat U.S. employment growth for July and surged of US dollar. A stronger dollar typically makes oil and other commodities denominated in the greenback less affordable to holders of the euro and other currencies, reducing demand for them.

Prices however fell anew in the next two trading days weighed down by persistent signs of oversupply, weak demand and expectations of rising output. Current price are down by about 25 percent from their June peaks of about US$50 a barrels. The weekly inventory data from the US-Energy Information Administration supported the declines as it showed a surprise 1.4 million barrel rise in crude inventories in the week ending July 29.

Crude almost immediately bounced back, however, hitting again above US$40 as traders reportedly focused on a larger-than-expected drawdown in US gasoline inventories and fall in crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex futures

About the oil-products market in Asia, gasoil/diesel remained dominated by weak demand with tepid regional requirements and closed East-West arbitrage, which contributed to swelling stockpiles in the region. On the other hand, gasoline market was supported by demand from Indonesia and surprise draws in US gasoline stocks. While output and exports of gasoline from North Asia remained high, traders expect this to reduce going forward with maintenances starting in the region from September.

Overall, Dubai crude decreased week-on-week by US$0.50/bbl. MOPS gasoline decreased by nearly US$0.30 and diesel also by more than US$2 per barrel.

FOREX: Philippine peso recovered against the US dollar, appreciating by P0.14 to P47.00/US$ from P47.14 in previous week.

Other recommended reference site: http://www.aip.com.au/pricing

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Most local oil companies implemented effective 09 August the price rollback in gasoline by P0.10/liter, diesel by P0.75 and kerosene by P0.85/liter.

Consequently, year-to-date adjustments of gasoline and diesel moved lower, now at net increase of P0.09 and P2.63 per liter respectively. LPG remains at net decrease of P8.48/kg.

 

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning August 09, 2016.

Products Price Range Common Price
P/liter
Diesel 22.70-26.10 25.15
Gasoline* 33.30-40.35 38.25
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders 492.00-620.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Pages