Oil Monitor as of 10 March 2015


WORLD OIL PRICES (March 2-6, 2015 trading days)

Crude oil prices sustained its uptrend until last Monday, posting about a dollar higher than the Friday levels, owing to reports of supply concerns in Iran and Iraq. Nonetheless, news of soaring US dollar, US’ eight straight weeks of record high crude inventories, and the US’ pursuit of an Iranian nuclear deal somehow offset the earlier gain. Over the rest of the week however, the trend was again distracted as prices seesawed given the following overwhelmingly bearish factors:

  •  Libya's declaration of force majeure. Libya’s National Oil Co declared force majeure Wednesday at 11 oil fields after attacks by Islamists, a legal step protecting it from liability if it cannot fullfil contracts for reasons beyond its control;
  •  US’ pursuit of a nuclear agreement with Tehran. This could end sanctions against Iran and bring more oil from the OPEC member into an already flooded market. But Iran stressed that it opposed a timeline for a freeze on nuclear activities. Tehran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Reza Najafi, said Wednesday that no deal had been reached on the duration of any possible agreement covering Iran's nuclear program.
  •  Federal Reserve’s anticipation on capital expenditure for US oil and gas producers. Federal Reserve's Beige Book report anticipates cuts in capital expenditure for oil and gas producers in certain U.S. districts. Lower oil exploration budgets could mean less supply in the future; thus would indicate higher oil prices.

On Platts news about the Asian market, gasoline reportedly firmed over the trading week due partly to some profit taking. Modest uptick in spot requirements owing to refinery issues in the US and the onset of the refinery turnaround season in the region also added to the price firm up. Meanwhile, Singapore's latest data revealed that commercial stockpiles of light distillates in landed storage around the island slipped by 0.24 million barrels during the week of February 26-March 4.

On the other hand, the Far East gasoil market is said to continually be buoyed in the near term by a supply shortage of 500 ppm gasoil, primarily because of refinery maintenance in Asia and robust demand for the medium-sulfur grade from Vietnam. Supplies of ultra-low sulfur diesel and high sulfur gasoil in Asia were seen to be healthier compared to 500 ppm due to less outlets. Moreover, an outflow of arbitrage barrels to the west reportedly cleared up some over-supply in Asia and the Middle East, which in turn led to a drawdown in inventories.

Overall, Dubai crude increased by US$1.50/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel also increased by US$3.30 and US$1.70 per barrel, respectively.

FOREX:    Peso per US dollar rate appreciated by P0.07 to P44.12, from P44.18 in previous week.   

Other recommended reference sites:  (1) http://www.aip.com.au/pricing (2) http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html 


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective today, 10 March 2015, most of the oil companies implemented a price increase of P0.95/liter in gasoline and P0.55/liter in diesel.    

Said price increase raised the year-to-date adjustment to a net increase of P1.90 in gasoline and P0.20 in diesel. LPG remained at net decrease of P4.80/kg
Price

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 10 March 2015.

Products Price Range Common Price
                                              P/liter
Diesel          28.05-31.35            30.25
Gasoline*         38.90-44.45            43.10
Auto LPG         23.70-24.40  
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders      508.00-728.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email:  oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of 17 March 2015


WORLD OIL PRICES (March 9-13, 2015 trading days) 

Crude oil prices decreased by about US$3 to US$4 a barrel over the whole week reportedly due to the following:  

  •  Rising US stockpiles amid a global supply glut.  US-Department of Energy disclosed that US crude inventories had climbed to a fresh record high of 448.9 million barrels in the week ending 06 March, while stockpiles at Cushing also had increased.  
  • Weaker US dollar.  The greenback had eased from 12-year highs.  A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced crude cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies, tending to support demand and, in turn, prices.    

A broadly weak US retail sales report for February also hung over the oil market. 

On Platts news about the Asian market, it noted that gasoline demand continued to support the market during the week, with firm buying from Middle East and Vietnam.  While prices may have eased in the prompt period, traders still see the potential for firming ahead of planned refinery turnarounds in the second-quarter.   

Meanwhile, sentiment in the Asian gasoil/diesel market could firm going forward on tightening regional supply amid upcoming refinery turnarounds in the second quarter and pick-up in demand from Vietnam -- one of the region's key spot buyers.  While supplies are seen tightening in Asia, Platts stressed that new refinery capacity in the Middle East is coming on-stream.  It could add volumes into the market.  

Overall, Dubai crude price decreased week-on-week by almost US$3.00/bbl.  MOPS gasoline and diesel also decreased by US$2.30/bbl and US$3.20/bbl, respectively.  

FOREX:  Peso per US dollar rate depreciated by P0.16 to P44.28, from P44.12 in previous week. 

Other recommended reference sites:  (1) http://www.aip.com.au/pricing (2) http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html 


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Most of the oil companies rolled back their prices of gasoline by P0.50/l-P0.55/l, diesel by P0.85/l and kerosene by P1.10/l effective 17 March 2015.      

The year-to-date adjustments summed to a net increase of P1.37 in gasoline and net decrease of P0.65 in diesel.   

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 17 March 2015..

Products Price Range Common Price
                                              P/liter
Diesel        26.35-32.65            29.20
Gasoline*         38.37-43.92            42.45
Auto LPG         23.70-24.40  
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders      508.00-728.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email:  oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of 24 March 2015


WORLD OIL PRICES  (March 16-20, 2015 trading days) 

Crude prices were generally down over the whole week as China and other Asian countries reportedly slowed-down from their crude purchases.  The news surfaced after US crude benchmark-WTI fell last Wednesday to a new six-year low of about US$43/bbl, following the release of weekly U.S. oil inventory report.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that the country’s crude inventory increased by 9.6 million barrels in the week ending March 20, higher than analysts’ forecast.  It was the 10th week in a row the volume of U.S.-held crude has increased. 

China was said to have been aggressively adding to its strategic oil reserves for the past eight months, peaking in December when its purchases hit a record 7.2 million barrels per day.  However, the world’s second-largest oil consumer recently paused from oil buildup as its available storage tanks are nearly topped off.   

Indian and Japanese refineries are likewise slowing imports as part of their annual facility maintenance, which temporarily curbs some refinery activity. That slowdown is expected to peak in April and May, according to reports by the New York-based PIRA Energy Group.  

On Platts news about petroleum products market in Asia, it noted that gasoline find support on firmer gasoline cracks in the US and Europe, as well as demand for reformate from China, where supplies were said to have tightened.  High demand for reformate from China has seen higher octane spot cargoes, which fetch hefty premiums of as much as $28/barrel over Brent.  

Overall, Dubai crude price decreased week-on-week by about US$3.70/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel also decreased by around US$4.60 and US$3.70 per barrel, respectively.

FOREX: Peso per US dollar rate depreciated by P0.33 to P44.61, from P44.28 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:  (1) http://www.aip.com.au/pricing (2) http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html 


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective today, 24 March 2015, most of the oil companies rolled back their prices by P1.10/liter for gasoline, P0.95/liter to P1.00/liter for diesel, and P0.90/liter for kerosene.   

The total net increase for gasoline is now down at P0.27 while the total net decrease for diesel has grown to P1.62.

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 24  March 2015..

Products Price Range Common Price
                                              P/liter
Diesel         25.40-31.70            28.25
Gasoline*         37.27-42.82            41.35
Auto LPG         23.70-24.40  
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders      508.00-728.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email:  oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of 31 March 2015


WORLD OIL PRICES  (March 23-27, 2015 trading days)  

Oil prices were generally going upward over the week’s trading period except in the middle of the week, when reports of rising inventories in the US caused Dubai and other crude benchmarks to decrease by less than a dollar.   

By Thursday, the price of oil rose sharply by about US$4/bbl on reports of escalating unrest in Yemen as Shiite rebels advance their power grab.  The Saudi Arabian jets attack against rebel targets in Yemen caused fears that an escalating crisis in the country could threaten crude producers in the Middle East and may eventually disrupt crude supplies.  

However, crude prices sank by about US$2 last Friday, giving back the previous day gain, as the crisis in Yemen eased.  

As regards the products market in Asia, Platts stressed that gasoline continued its upward momentum with buying interest from regional buyers like Kuwait and Sri Lanka.  The recent strength is expected to persist in the near term as supplies start to tighten in anticipation of regional refinery turnaround this quarter.

Meanwhile, fundamentals in the Asian gasoil market were largely balanced, driven by steady demand for 500 ppm sulfur gasoil from South Africa and Vietnam, and tight supply of 10 ppm sulfur gasoil within Asia and the Middle East because of refinery maintenance

 

Overall, Dubai crude price increased week-on-week by about US$2.50/bbl.  MOPS gasoline and diesel also increased by about US$3.50 and US$1.60 per barrel, respectively 

FOREX: Peso per US dollar rate depreciated by P0.17 to P44.78, from P44.61 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:  (1) http://www.aip.com.au/pricing (2) http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html 


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 31 March 2015, most of the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.10/liter for gasoline, P0.60 for diesel and P0.80 for kerosene.  Prices in the table reflect these adjustments

Year-to-date, gasoline stands at a net increase of P1.37 while diesel has a net decrease of P0.82. 

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 31  March 2015..

Products Price Range Common Price
                                              P/liter
Diesel         26.20-32.50            29.05
Gasoline*         38.37-43.92            42.45
Auto LPG         23.70-24.40  
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders      508.00-728.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email:  oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of 07 April 2015


WORLD OIL PRICES  (30 March – 3 April 2015 trading days) 

Oil prices during the trading week were generally lower than week-ago; prices initially fell on Monday as traders focused on the deal between Iran and the six world powers.  Both parties tried to reach a deal on Tehran’s nuclear programme that could end Western sanctions, which could allow the country to ship more crude to the market. 

Market analysts opine that any relaxation of Iran oil sanctions may result to increased exports, thus adding to an already flooded market (now with around 1.5 million b/d in excess capacity) and further pressuring prices. The deadline for the deal was set on the eve of 31 March, but was extended over the time limit.  Reportedly, the Tuesday midnight deadline was scrapped after the U.S. insisted enough progress had been made to warrant extending the marathon talks (The China Post).

With this delay in the Iranian negotiations over the lifting of its sanctions, oil prices rebounded slightly for the first time in four days.  Adding to this is the less than expected weekly build-up in US inventories.  Reuters reported that U.S. crude rose 5 percent on Wednesday, and Brent about 4 percent, after U.S. government data showed the first weekly decline since January in crude production even as crude stocks hit new highs.  On Thursday, separate data from the U.S. government showed crude oil exports fell to 428,000 bpd in February compared with 491,000 bpd in January. 

As regards the products market in Asia, Platts reported that Asian gasoline sentiment continued to slide this week amid selling pressure.  However, regional demand remained healthy on higher Indonesian imports.  State-owned Pertamina is expected to import around 11 million barrels of gasoline in April, up 2.15 million barrels from March, due to increased demand for the higher RON gasoline, and the company’s rebuilding of inventory.    

Meanwhile, near-term outlook for the Asian gasoil market remained boosted by periodic demand from the region, along with tight supply stemming from refinery maintenance in Northeast Asia, Australia and India.  Further, the South Korean government plans to launch taxis running on gasoil from September in a move that is expected to boost gasoil demand, notwithstanding protests from LPG producers (under current rules, all taxis in the country are LPG-fed).    

Overall, Dubai crude price decreased week-on-week by US$0.38; MOPS gasoline and diesel also decreased by US$2.17 and US$0.37, respectively. 

FOREX: Peso per US dollar rate appreciated week-on-week by about P0.07 to P44.71, from P44.64 in the preceding week.   

Other recommended reference sites:  (1) http://www.aip.com.au/pricing (2) http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html 


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Beginning 07 April 2015, most of the oil companies implemented a rollback of P0.65/liter for gasoline, P0.15 for diesel and P0.25 for kerosene.  No adjustment was implemented for LPG.  

Given these adjustments in prices, the net increase of gasoline is lowered to P0.72/li; net decrease for diesel was increased to P1.19/li.  LPG remains at net decrease of P4.80/kg   

As monitored, shown below are the retail prices in Metro Manila beginning 07 April 2015..

Products Price Range Common Price
                                            P/liter
Diesel          26.90-43.80             28.70
Gasoline*          38.40-52.05            41.95
Auto LPG          23.70-24.40  
LPG, P/11-kg cylinders        508.00-728.00  

* RON 95

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email:  oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

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