WORLD OIL PRICES (November 27-December 01, 2023, trading days))
The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by nearly $1.00/bbl. Similarly, MOPS diesel has also decreased by around $1.00 per barrel. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline and kerosene prices have increased by about $0.20 and $0.10 per barrel, respectively.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment1
- Crude prices eased on lower-than-expected OPEC+ cuts and US inventory build while expectation of stimulus package from China provided floor to the market.
- Saudi Arabia will rollover its 1million b/d voluntary cuts set to expire at the end of December while Russia increased its voluntary cut to 500,000 b/d. Both cuts will be through the end of Q1 2024. Per OPEC statement, they will be joined by additional voluntary cuts of 223,000 b/d from Iraq; 163,000 b/d from the UAE; 135,000 b/d from Kuwait; 82,000 b/d from Kazakhstan; 51,000 b/d from Algeria and 42,000 b/d from Oman.
- US-EAI data showed an increase of US commercial crude stocks by 1.61 million barrels to 449.66 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 24. The build pushed inventories to their highest outright level since mid-July, around 0.8% above the five-year average for this time of year.
- China's weak factory activity reignited hopes that Beijing could consider stronger stimulus measures to boost the country's economy. The country’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was reported to have fallen to 49.4 points in November, from 49.5 in October.
- Asian gasoline complex stayed firm on continued expectation of low Chinese gasoline exports and strong demand from India. However, headwinds could loom from Japan amid rising inflation rates. Meanwhile, regional supply addition, as refineries come back from maintenance, provides softness to the complex.
- Market participants estimated that China only had 1 million mt of export quota available for the export of gasoil and gasoline in December.
- Gasoil/diesel market was mostly steady as traders looked for fresh pricing direction.
- In Europe, diesel/gasoil stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub, as measured by Insights Global, rose 9.6% in the week to Nov. 23 to 1.845 million mt, rebounding from a 13-month low the previous week. Stocks were now the highest in four weeks and 4.5% higher on the year.
FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.02 to P55.43 from P55.45 in previous week.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 05 December 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase in gasoline and kerosene by P0.30 and P0.20 per liter, respectively. On the opposite, the price of diesel has decreased by P0.30 per liter.
These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P12.60/liter for gasoline, P5.70/liter for diesel and P1.94/liter for kerosene.
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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 01 December 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.