Oil Monitor as of 18 February 2020


WORLD OIL PRICES  (February 10-14, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$0.40 per barrel.  On the contrary, both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have increased, gasoline by around US$1.15 per barrel and diesel by a little of  US$0.01 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Oil prices sharply lower on coronavirus impact concerns, but talks of OPEC+ cuts provided some support.

    • The  next few weeks  will  be  crucial  to  observe  if the coronavirus  is  contained  as  workers’ return  to  work  could  spark  another  wave  of outbreak.

  • China’s imports of U.S. crudes likely to stay modest in the near term before picking up strongly in 2H20.

    • Platts Analytics expects U.S. crude exports to increase by 650 MB/D year-on-year in 2020, with the bulk going to Asia.

    • China’s imports of U.S. crudes to stay modest in the near term due to the coronavirus before picking up strongly in 2H20 after the outbreak.

  • Global oil demand to take a hit as China’s growth gets slashed by the coronavirus outbreak.

    • Global oil demand in 2020 is expected to grow by 1 MMB/D under the best-case scenario and 320 MB/D under the worst-case scenario.  

    • Asian oil demand is expected to grow by 560 MB/D in 2020 under the best-case scenario but with no growth under the worst-case scenario.

  • The Asian gasoline market showed signs of easing at the end of the trading week, as the bout of optimism began to fade following further supply cuts in China.

  • Asian gasoil market ended the week on a softer note, with some traders saying that prompt cargoes were being seen in the spot market and which was placing downward pressure on the middle distillate.

  • The coronavirus outbreak in China has hit gasoil demand, with refineries having to cut back production in an effort to offset stock pressure.

  • Weaker demand has also been seen in other Asian regions.

  • The volatility over the last week has been a reflection of that, market sources said, with some saying that the market was searching for direction in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak which has impacted China's domestic consumption.

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso appreciated against the US dollar by P0.21 to P50.61 from P50.82 in the previous week.  

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective February 18-19,2020, most of the oil companies implemented a price increase/decrease on petroleum products. The price of gasoline has increased by P0.35/liter while a P0.10/liter decreased, have been effected on the price of   diesel and  kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net decrease of P2.80/liter for gasoline, P4.60/liter for diesel and P5.94/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Oil Monitor as of 11 February 2020


WORLD OIL PRICES  (February 3-7, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by more than US$04.00 per barrel.  Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased, gasoline by around US$0.90 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$1.90 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Crude futures settled lower Friday as Russia requested more time to mull further production cuts, potentially blocking any action from OPEC+ to backstop sliding oil prices.

  • Earlier in the week, OPEC and non-OPEC allies group ends second day without consensus on fresh cuts.

    • Delegates on a key advisory committee will extend their talks to a third day, with Russia still demurring on committing to deeper production cuts.

    • Russia prefers to merely extend the coalition's existing supply accord beyond its March expiry, one delegate said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks.

  • US crude exports have been sufficiently strong in recent weeks to balance weak domestic refiner demand and growing production levels.

    • But US exports could face headwinds in coming weeks due to competition from barrels displaced from Chinese markets facing coronavirus-related demand slowdowns.

  • Reports of coronavirus treatment alleviate some demand concerns.

  • Asian gasoline market softened as US gasoline inventories increased by 1.96 million barrels in the week ended January 31, slightly higher than Platts analysts’ survey of 1.9 million barrels in the week ended January 31, 2020.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel market pared gains later in the week as supply concerns recede. The Asian gasoil market was in its upward momentum Monday, extending a rally that began last week as supply concerns prompted by production cuts in Northeast Asia due to poor refining margins that started to outweigh the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on demand.

  • Mixed sentiment characterized much of the Asian gasoil/diesel market towards the end of the week, with uncertainty clouding the market outlook.

    • Ongoing questions revolved around China's gasoil demand and export volumes as it continues to struggle with the coronavirus epidemic.

    • Few countries will reportedly be delaying imports from China, while others said that some countries were allowing imports from China.

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso appreciated against the US dollar by  P0.02 to P50.82 from P50.84 in the previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective February 8-11,2020, most of the oil companies implemented a price decrease on petroleum products. The price of gasoline has decreased by P0.30/liter, P0.60/liter for diesel and P1.40/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net decrease of P3.15/liter for gasoline, P4.50/liter for diesel and P5.84/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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