Oil Monitor as of 03 December 2019


WORLD OIL PRICES  (November 25-29, 2019 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$1.30 per barrel.  MOPS gasoline and diesel have also increased, gasoline by around US$0.80 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$1.85 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Concerns about an escalation of the trade war between the world's two biggest economies have weighed on crude futures for much of this year, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other's exports.

  • With trade talks dominating market action, the higher opening prices came after US national security adviser Robert O’Brien said on Saturday that an initial trade agreement with China is still possible by the end of the year.

  • The Asian gasoline market is expected to stay firm, as sentiment remained supportive amid expectations of tight gasoline supply due to IMO 2020, a trader said.

  • Demand from the Middle East was robust despite the approaching winters, which typically see a seasonal lull for the transport fuel.

  • The Asian gasoline market was steady, as sentiment remained mixed amid a slew of tenders in the spot market.

  • Asian gasoline market saw a fresh bout of strength at the end of the trading week, as sentiment remained firm and unfazed by the sharp day-on-day dip seen in derivative and physical cracks spreads at the Asian close Thursday.

  • Asian gasoil staged a moderate recovery this week. After six weeks of near-constant decline, both cracks and timespreads moved upwards.

  • IMO 2020 is also having an impact on freight cost, with owners asking for higher rates due to the increase cost of compliant fuel.

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso appreciated against the US dollar by P0.03 to P50.79, from P50.82 in the previous week.

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective December 03, 2019, most of the oil companies implemented a price increase for gasoline, diesel and kerosene. Gasoline has increased by P0.30/liter, P0.65/liter for diesel and P0.50 for kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net increase of P6.82/liter for gasoline, P3.81/liter for diesel and P0.94/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

LPG Monitor as of 01 December 2019


LPG Contract Price (CP)

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “ Saudi CP ” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines . It is an international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state - owned oil company Saudi Aramco.

Aramco's CPs, which set the price of LPG lifted from the Saudi ports of  Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets East of Suez.

The DOE refer to the LPG/Saudi CP and forex monthly average changes in determining/monitoring the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also vary every first day of the month and remain constant through  out the whole month.

Like all other petroleum products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is small versus the world demand. For the month of December, LPG Contract Price has increased by US$ 10.00/MT to US$ 450.50/MT, from US$ 440.50/MT last month.

International LPG Market Development Positions

  • The December propane and butane CPs were at the top end of traders' expectations.
  • The propane and butane CPs rose for the third consecutive month.
  • LPG price for December has increased behind increasing demand for winter season. However, refineries are ramping up refinery run rates.   
  • The adjustment thus reflects the movement in the international Contract Price of LPG for the month of December.

Domestic Prices      

Oil companies increased the price of LPG effective 01 December 2019 by P0.25kg or about P2.75/11-kg cylinder. Auto LPG likewise increased by P0.15/liter. 

As of 01 December 2019, household LPG in Metro Manila ranges from P596.75-P797.75 per 11-kilogram cylinder.

Shown below are the retail prices of 11 Kg. Household LPG
in Metro Manila from July 2018 to December 2019

Year
Domestic
Price

Adjustment/Kg.
Increase(-Decrease)

2018
 
 

July
580.00-800.00
0.90

August
599.00-819.00
1.75

September
591.45-841.45
1.95

October
650.00-865.00
2.35

November
613.00-785.00
-7.50

December
542.60-714.60
-6.40

2019
 
 

January
543.00-730.00
0.00

February
576.00-755.00
3.88

March
608.00-785.00
2.90

April
615.60-800.00
1.25

May
615.60-798.00
-0.20

June
589.00-750.00
-6.25

July
550.00-695.00
-3.36-3.40

August
550.00-695.00
0.00

September
550.00-695.00
0.00

October
575.00-737.00
4.50

November
594.00-795.00
0.30

December
596.75-797.75
0.25

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: www.doe.gov.ph

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