Oil Supply / Demand Report

Oil Supply/Demand Report Full Year 2017

SUPPLY

Inventory

December 2017 actual crudes and petroleum products inventory closed at 20,363 thousand barrels (MB) or 46-day supply equivalent; 37 days for crude oil and products in country stocks and 9 days in-transit.  This was lower by 1.8 percent from December 2016’s 20,742 MB.

The government continued to enforce the Minimum Inventory Requirement (MIR) given the continuing risks faced by the downstream oil industry sector such as geopolitical instability and supply delivery problems to areas affected by calamities (e.g. typhoon, flood, earthquake, etc.).

Current MIR for refiners is in-country stocks equivalent to 30 days while an equivalent of 15 days stock is required for the bulk marketers and 7 days for the LPG players.

Further, in response to the emergency situation brought about by extremism and terrorism in Marawi City, the Department intensified its monitoring of the bulk oil supply status in Mindanao to ensure continuous and adequate supply of petroleum products in the area.

Crude Oil Supply

Total crude oil import for the period reached 73,943 MB, a decrease of 6.1 percent from 78,782 MB of last year’s level.  

About ninety percent of the total crude mix (66,197 MB) was sourced from the Middle East, of which 36.6 percent (27,097 MB) came from Saudi Arabia, the top supplier of crude oil into the country. Next is Kuwait with a 30.2 percent share of the total crude mix, followed by UAE with a 17.6 percent share. On the other hand, 6.9 percent (5,106 MB) of crude oil was imported from Russia, while 1.4 percent  (1,000 MB) was from Australia.  The remaining 2.2 percent was sourced from the ASEAN (1,467 MB) and from local production (127 MB) (Fig. 1).                      

Figure 1 Full Year 2017 Crude Imports

Petroleum Product / Ethanol Imports

Full Year 2017 petroleum product imports totaled 97,530 MB, an increase of 11.8 percent from Full Year 2016’s 87,240 MB. 

The top imported product for the period was diesel oil which grew by 12.7 percent from last year’s level. Gasoline and LPG imports also rose by 10.6 and 10.2 percent, respectively. Likewise, kerosene/avturbo increased by 31.6 percent.  However, fuel oil import went down by 2.9 percent compared with Full Year 2016 import.

The other industry players accounted for majority of the product imports with 75.6 percent of the total imports volume, up by 14.5 percent to 73,741 MB from Full Year 2016’s 64,385 MB.  The oil majors (Petron, Chevron and Pilipinas Shell) accounted for the remaining 24.4 percent which increased by 4.1 percent from last year’s 22,856 MB to 23,789 MB. 

The local refiners (Petron and Pilipinas Shell) accounted for 14.8 percent of the total product imports, which included blending stocks, as against 85.2 percent share by direct importers.       

Product import mix comprised mostly of diesel oil at 41.5 percent, gasoline at 18.3 percent, LPG at 13.1 percent, kerosene/avturbo at 9.5 percent, fuel oil at 7.1 percent and other products at 10.4 percent share in the total product mix.

Total gasoline import reached 45.7 percent of gasoline demand while diesel oil import was 58.9 percent of diesel demand.  LPG import on the other hand, was 69.1 percent of LPG demand.  Total product import was 58.7 percent of the total products demand. 

The oil majors’ import share in the total demand was 14.3 percent while the other players’ import share was at 44.4 percent.  As for the refiners, their import share in the total demand was 8.7 percent, while 50.0 percent was attributed to direct importers.

Meanwhile, a total of  1,808.4 MB ethanol was imported for fuel use during the period which grew by 10.4 percent from 1,638.2 MB of Full Year 2016.  Republic Act No. 9367 of 2006 mandated that all gasoline to be sold in the country should be E-10 (gasoline with 10% bioethanol content).

Crude Run and Refinery Production

The country’s current maximum working crude distillation capacity is 285.2 thousand barrels per stream day (MBSD).

Total crude processed as of Full Year 2017 was down by 2.3 percent from 79,016 MB of Full Year 2016 to 77,192 MB. Refinery utilization during the period also decreased from last year’s 75.7 percent to 74.2 percent this year. The drop may be due to the extended maintenance shutdown and turn around schedule of the local refineries, sometime during the year.

Consequently, local petroleum refinery production output also went down by 2.7 percent from 78,113 MB to 75,981 MB.  Full 2017 average refining output was at 208.2 MB per day.

Diesel oil output decreased by 4.7 percent while gasoline output dropped by 2.0 percent. Similarly, kerosene/avturbo and LPG output went down by 11.1 and 2.9 percent, respectively.  Petrochem products outputs such as mixed xylene, benzene and toluene also decreased during the same period.  Meanwhile, fuel oil output was up by 25.1 percent which may be due to higher international demand.

Diesel oil continued to dominate the production mix with a share of 36.5 percent, followed by gasoline and kerosene/avturbo with 24.4 and 9.8 percent shares, respectively.  Meanwhile, fuel oil and LPG got 8.5 and 6.8 shares, respectively (Fig. 2).

Figure 2 Full Year  2017 Production/Demand Mix

DEMAND

Petroleum Product Demand

Full Year 2017 demand of petroleum products totaled 166,258 MB, an increase of 7.0 percent from 155,414 MB of Full Year 2016. This can be translated to an average daily requirement of 455.5 MB compared with last year’s level of 424.6 MB.

Compared with Full Year of 2016 figures, diesel oil demand was up by 5.9 percent. Similarly, demand of kerosene/avturbo, LPG and gasoline increased by 10.0, 9.6 and 8.3 percent, respectively. However, fuel oil demand decreased by 12.7 percent.

Product demand mix comprised mostly of diesel oil at 41.3 percent, gasoline at 23.5 percent, LPG at 11.2 percent, kerosene/ avturbo at 10.3 percent, fuel oil at 6.8 percent  and other products at 6.9 percent share in the total product mix (Fig. 2).

Petroleum Product Exports

Total country’s petroleum products exports as of Full Year 2017 rose by 6.2 percent from 13,772 MB of Full Year 2016 to 14,631 MB.

Vis-à-vis last year, condensate, the top exported product for the period decreased by 9.4 percent. Naphtha export was also down by 17.2 percent. On the other hand, fuel oil export upsurged by 80.7 percent. Petrochem products such as propylene, mixed xylene and benzene export also increased which may be due to higher international demand.

The total export mix comprised of condensate (24.6 percent); fuel oil (19.6 percent); pygas (12.5 percent); propylene (11.9 percent); naphtha (9.2 percent); mixed C4 (7.7 percent); mixed xylene (5.1 percent); gasoline (4.1 percent); toluene (2.7 percent); benzene (1.3 percent); reformate (0.9 percent); and LPG (0.5 percent).

The oil refiners’ exports accounted for 55.2 percent of the total export mix while the remaining 44.8 percent was accounted to export of other players. 

Crude Oil Exports

A total of 1,409 MB crude oil from Galoc (Palawan Light) was exported during the period which decreased by 21.9 percent from Full Year of 2016’s 1,804 MB.

MARKET SHARE

Total Petroleum Products

The major oil companies (Petron Corp., Chevron Phils. and Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp.) got 54.6 percent market share of the total demand  while the other industry players which include PTT Philippine Corp. (PTTPC),  Total Phils., Seaoil Phil. Inc., TWA Inc. , Phoenix, Liquigaz, Prycegas, Micro Dragon, Unioil, Isla Gas, Jetti, Eastern Petroleum, JS Union, JS Phils. Corp., Petrotrade, South Pacific, Marubeni, SL Harbour, Insular, Rockoil, RK3 Int’l., Perdido and Filoil Logistics Corp.,  as well as the end users who imported directly most of their requirement captured 45.4 percent of the market (Fig. 3).

Figure 3 Full Year 2017 Market Shae (Total Petroleum Products)

Meanwhile, the local refiners (Petron Corp. and Pilipinas Shell) captured 47.6 percent of the total market demand while 52.4 percent was credited to direct importers/end-users.

LPG

The other players’ market share, with the inclusion of South Pacific last year, increased to 70.0 percent.  The remaining 30.0 percent was credited to the oil refiners.

Petron’s share was 29.8 percent of the total LPG demand while among the other LPG players, Liquigaz got the biggest market share with a 23.8 percent share. This was followed by South Pacific, Inc. (SPI) with a share of 13.7 percent.  Next were Prycegases and Isla Gas, with shares of 12.7 and 12.3 percent, respectively (Fig. 4).

Figure 4 Full Year 2017 LPG Market Share

OIL IMPORT BILL

Full Year 2017 estimated total oil import bill amounting to $9,892.4 million was up by 31.2 percent from Full Year 2016’s $7,542.8 million.  This was attributed to the combined effects of higher import cost and higher  volume of product imports vis-à-vis last year. 

Total oil import cost was made up of 59.5 percent finished products and 40.5 percent crude oil.

Total import of crude oil amounted to $4,008.9 million, grew by 20.7 percent from $3,321.5 million of Full Year 2016 due to higher CIF price per barrel from Full Year 2016’s $42.161/bbl to $54.216/bbl. 

Meanwhile, total product import cost was up by 39.4 percent to $5,883.5 million at an average CIF cost of $60.325/bbl vis-à-vis Full Year 2016’s $4,221.2 million at an average CIF cost of $48.386/bbl. The increase was attributed to higher import cost this year and increased in the volume of product imports.   Average dollar rate for Full Year 2017 is $50.834 compared to Full Year 2016’s average rate of $48.594.

On the other hand, the country’s petroleum exports earnings for the period rose by 48.6 percent from $654.4 million in 2016 to $972.5 million this year. 

Overall, the country’s Full Year 2017 net oil import bill amounting to $8,919.8 million was up by 29.5 percent from Full Year 2016’s $6,888.3 million.

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