Biomass, solar and wind will be among the major sources of energy for the next decade, accounting for more than a third of the country's total energy demand. From 81.5 MMBFOE in 2003, the absolute level of these sources will increase by 2.8 percent annually reaching 104.1 MMBFOE in 2012. Biomass will continue to take the lion's share of the total at 99 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of solar, wind and ocean will reach 0.6 MMBFOE in 2003 rising to 1.7 MMBFOE in 2007 and 3.0 MMBFOE in 2012.

At present, biomass technologies utilized in the country vary from the use of bagasse as boiler fuel for cogeneration, rice/coconut husks dryers for crop drying, biomass gasifiers for mechanical and electrical applications, fuelwood and agriwastes for oven, kiln, furnace and cookstoves for cooking and heating purposes.

Contribution of wind, solar and biomass sources for non-power applications will comprise a large portion of total demand for RE in the next ten years. Demand for solar and wind energy sources is foreseen to grow with the implementation of the program to invigorate the market for solar water heaters and locally fabricated solar dryers and wind pumps. On the other hand, biomass resources will continue to dominate total non-power demand for RE, increasing from 40.43 MMBFOE in 2003 to 47.46 MMBFOE in 2012.

The household sector will remain the largest user of these energy forms particularly fuelwood, comprising 66.9 percent of the total biomass consumption for the ten-year period. From a level of 57.6 MMBFOE in 2003, consumption of the sector will increase to 68.4 percent in 2012. While there is a growing trend in the consumption of fuelwood in the next ten-year period, the government shall institute measures and programs that would rationalize the utilization of this resource, with the view of reducing the negative impact on the environment. Such measures and programs to be instituted would include but not limited to the use of LPG and electricity for cooking and solar driers for crop drying, which would encourage rural households to shift to alternative fuels. Biomass will still be the most important fuel for rural households particularly in their cooking and agriculture activities such as crop drying. Solar and wind, on the other hand, shall be utilized for lighting, water pumping and operation of small appliances.

RE consumption by the commercial and industrial sectors is monitored through a regular inventory conducted by DOE's 21 Affiliated Non-Conventional Energy Centers (ANECs). The data collected are then used as basis for determining future demand of these sectors. For the next ten years, commercial and industrial activities will comprise 29.7 percent of the total demand for RE. In absolute levels, demand will rise from 22.9 MMBFOE in 2003 to 29.9 MMBFOE in 2012 registering an average annual growth of 3 percent. Major industrial uses of RE include sugar milling, process heating by wood industrial plants and coconut mills, and furniture making; bakeries and restaurants, on the other hand, count as the major commercial users.

Power generation using RE sources will require a total of 1.0 MMBFOE in 2003. Initially, grid-electricity from these resources will be produced by the 8-MW grid-connected capacity of the bagasse-fuelled BUSCO Milling Co. in Bukidnon. With the implementation of PNOC-EDC's initial 40-MW (Burgos) and NorthWind's 25-MW (Bangui Bay) wind power projects in Ilocos Norte starting 2004, electricity generated using other RE sources will increase, reaching a total of 2.8 MMBFOE in 2007 and a further 5.8 MMBFOE in 2012.

Meanwhile, as the government endeavors to proactively involve the private sector in pursuing energy projects, a total of 417 MW indicative capacity additions using wind (Table 7), biomass, solar and ocean (Table 8) resources for the next ten years, has been lined up and are awaiting interested proponents. To date, the DOE has received various applications for power generation totaling 350 MW.

Supply

Biomass

Based on information from the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), the Philippines could generate substantial volumes of residues which can be utilized as energy fuel. Latest estimates reveal that the country's agriculture sector can potentially produce 271.7 MMBFOE of biomass in 2003, increasing moderately by 1.9 percent annually. By 2012, biomass supply potential is expected to reach 323.1 MMBFOE (Figure 9). Based on geographical consideration on biomass supply, there is an abundant supply of bagasse in Regions III, IV, VI and VII. Coconut residues abound in Regions IV, VIII, IX and XI while ricehull is abundant in Regions II, III, IV and VI.

Wind

The Philippines, being situated on the fringes of the Asia-Pacific monsoon belt, exhibits a promising potential for wind energy. Data from the Philippine Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) shows that the country has a mean average of about 31 watts per square meter (W/m2) of wind power density. In addition, a study conducted by the US-NREL in 1999 shows over 10,000 sq. km. of windy land areas estimated to exist with a good-to-excellent wind resource potential. Using conservative assumptions of about 7 MW per sq. km., this windy land could theoretically support over 70,000 MW of potential installed capacity.

Solar

The same study also conducted a resource assessment of solar power potential. Results of previous ground-based measurements of the daily total number of hours of sunshine duration were combined with US-NREL's Climatological Solar Radiation (CSR) Model (Figure 11). The model converts information on satellite and surfaced-derived data to estimate the monthly average daily total global horizontal solar resource. The study showed that the country has an annual potential average of 5.1 kilowatt-hour (kWh)/m2/day. Based on the 2001 inventory of solar technologies, a total of 5,120 solar systems have been installed, as follows: (i) 4,619 solar photovoltaic (PV) systems; (ii) 433 solar water heaters; and, (iii) 68 solar dryer systems.

Ocean

The country's ocean resource area consists of 1,000 sq. km. attributed mainly to its archipelagic nature. Based on a study conducted by the Mindanao State University (MSU), the potential theoretical capacity for this resource is estimated to be about 170,000 MW. Although there is little available information on the potential of ocean energy, navigational experiences hypothesized that these systems present significant resource options. Initial ocean energy potential sites identified include the Hinatuan Passage, Camarines, Northeastern Samar, Surigao, Batan Island, Catanduanes, Tacloban, San Bernardino Strait, Babuyan Island, Ilocos Norte, Siargao Island and Davao Oriental.